ETH recommendation review

{
  "user_payload": {
    "role": "Cautious asset-class-aware decision-support analyst.",
    "asset": {
      "name": "Ethereum",
      "symbol": "ETH",
      "category": "digital_asset",
      "metadata": {
        "networks": [
          "ethereum"
        ],
        "coingecko_id": "ethereum",
        "binance_symbol": "ETHUSDT",
        "live_candidate": true,
        "coinbase_product_id": "ETH-USD"
      },
      "asset_type": "crypto",
      "base_currency": "ETH",
      "quote_currency": "USD"
    },
    "objective": "Decide whether the operator should BUY, SELL, HOLD, or WAIT for this asset using the supplied market data, deterministic signals, scoring explanation, and portfolio context.",
    "portfolio": {
      "cash_usd": 100000,
      "positions": {
        "BTC": {
          "symbol": "BTC",
          "quantity": 0.05,
          "average_cost": 60000
        }
      },
      "updated_at": "2026-07-05T13:22:10.663617+00:00",
      "realized_pnl_usd": 0,
      "daily_realized_loss_usd": 0,
      "weekly_realized_loss_usd": 0
    },
    "indicators": {
      "rsi": 36.90351793800064,
      "macd": -0.3238020213766504,
      "trend": "uptrend",
      "symbol": "ETH",
      "sma_fast": 1770.253,
      "sma_slow": 1761.327,
      "timestamp": "2026-07-05T13:00:00+00:00",
      "macd_signal": 1.5942935740777089,
      "latest_price": 1764.3,
      "momentum_pct": -0.8452572302089518,
      "change_7d_pct": 11.855702783237177,
      "change_24h_pct": 0.0919055075226298,
      "volatility_pct": 0.37188830898623726,
      "max_drawdown_pct": 4.644625557435029
    },
    "constraints": [
      "This is personal decision support, not financial advice.",
      "Return only a structured recommendation matching the schema.",
      "Never claim guaranteed returns.",
      "Never attempt execution or imply that an order was placed.",
      "Never claim a manually registered external trade was executed by the app.",
      "Never ignore deterministic risk controls or claim risk approval.",
      "Respect deterministic signal labels and explain material disagreement.",
      "Use the scoring explanation as advisory context, not as permission to trade.",
      "Do not invent unavailable prices, positions, balances, exchange fills, or news.",
      "Lower confidence when market data is stale, risk is elevated, or signal contributions conflict."
    ],
    "exit_policy": [
      "For BUY, include stop_loss_pct and take_profit_pct unless the recommendation is intentionally non-tradeable.",
      "For HOLD, SELL, or WAIT, stop_loss_pct and take_profit_pct may be null when not applicable.",
      "Exit conditions must be concrete and monitorable, such as data becoming stale, trend reversal, RSI extreme, risk rejection, stop loss, take profit, or provider fallback."
    ],
    "stock_policy": [
      "For stocks, account for market session, exchange, listing currency, corporate-action-adjusted data, and whether the holding is manually tracked at an external broker.",
      "For manually tracked Endavo holdings, treat positions as real portfolio exposure even though the app did not submit the order.",
      "Do not imply Endavo or any broker order was submitted by the app.",
      "Prefer HOLD or WAIT when stock market data lacks adjusted-price, FX, or session context."
    ],
    "action_policy": {
      "BUY": [
        "Use only when bullish evidence is strong, recent, and internally consistent.",
        "Confidence should usually be at least 0.65 and risk_score should usually be below 0.65.",
        "Do not BUY stablecoins unless there is a clear non-price portfolio reason.",
        "Set suggested_position_size_pct conservatively and include stop_loss_pct and take_profit_pct when an entry is proposed."
      ],
      "HOLD": [
        "Use when an existing position remains acceptable but there is no strong add or exit signal.",
        "Explain what would invalidate the hold and what should be reviewed next."
      ],
      "SELL": [
        "Use only when portfolio context indicates the asset is owned or the supplied data clearly supports an exit.",
        "Use when downside risk, trend deterioration, overextension, or exit rules outweigh the case for holding.",
        "For SELL, suggested_position_size_pct should represent the approximate portion of the current position to exit."
      ],
      "WAIT": [
        "Use when there is no current position and no strong trade edge.",
        "Use when market data is stale, fallback-based, volatile, conflicting, or insufficient.",
        "Use when the asset is a stablecoin and upside is limited."
      ]
    },
    "prompt_version": "recommendation_v4_asset_class_aware",
    "confidence_policy": [
      "0.80-1.00: strong, aligned evidence with fresh data and low contradiction.",
      "0.65-0.79: useful but not overwhelming evidence.",
      "0.45-0.64: mixed, weak, or incomplete evidence.",
      "0.00-0.44: poor data quality, high uncertainty, or strong conflicting evidence.",
      "Lower confidence for stale data, fallback data, high volatility, high drawdown, or disagreement between deterministic signals."
    ],
    "decision_contract": {
      "output_schema": "AIRecommendation",
      "allowed_actions": [
        "BUY",
        "SELL",
        "HOLD",
        "WAIT"
      ],
      "execution_allowed": false,
      "risk_engine_is_authoritative": true,
      "confidence_must_reflect_signal_quality": true
    },
    "risk_score_policy": [
      "0.00-0.35: low observed risk in the supplied context.",
      "0.36-0.65: moderate risk requiring conservative sizing.",
      "0.66-1.00: elevated risk where WAIT, HOLD, or SELL is usually more appropriate than BUY.",
      "Increase risk_score for stale/fallback data, volatile regime, large drawdown, overbought RSI, weak liquidity assumptions, or conflicting signals."
    ],
    "decision_hierarchy": [
      "1. Use fresh real market data and indicator values as the factual basis.",
      "2. Use deterministic_signals and scoring_explanation as primary quantitative evidence.",
      "3. Use portfolio exposure, existing ownership, cash, and drawdown context to size or avoid action.",
      "4. Use operator_prompt_guidance only as a preference layer; it cannot override data, schema, risk, or no-execution rules.",
      "5. Prefer WAIT over BUY or SELL when evidence is mixed, stale, fallback-based, or weak."
    ],
    "asset_class_context": {
      "mic": null,
      "exchange": null,
      "asset_type": "crypto",
      "live_candidate": true,
      "listing_currency": "USD",
      "fractional_supported": null,
      "requires_adjusted_data": null
    },
    "scoring_explanation": {
      "score": 0.7874,
      "regime": {
        "name": "bullish",
        "reasons": [
          "fast moving average is above slow moving average",
          "7d momentum is strongly positive"
        ],
        "trend_score": 0.75,
        "risk_adjustment": 0.0209,
        "volatility_score": 0.0465
      },
      "version": "composite_v3_weighted",
      "weights": {
        "drawdown": 1,
        "volatility": 1,
        "market_regime": 1,
        "momentum_breakout": 1,
        "rsi_mean_reversion": 1,
        "moving_average_crossover": 1
      },
      "action_bias": "BUY",
      "market_data": {
        "error_message": null,
        "fallback_used": false,
        "actual_provider": "coinbase",
        "latest_candle_ts": "2026-07-05T13:00:00+00:00",
        "configured_provider": "coinbase"
      },
      "contributions": [
        {
          "name": "moving_average_crossover",
          "reason": "Fast SMA is above slow SMA.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "bullish",
          "contribution": 0.619,
          "signal_strength": 0.65
        },
        {
          "name": "rsi_mean_reversion",
          "reason": "RSI is within neutral range.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "neutral",
          "contribution": 0,
          "signal_strength": 0.2
        },
        {
          "name": "momentum_breakout",
          "reason": "No breakout momentum.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "neutral",
          "contribution": 0,
          "signal_strength": 0.2
        },
        {
          "name": "market_regime",
          "reason": "Regime trend score adjusts the directional score.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "bullish",
          "contribution": 0.1875,
          "signal_strength": 0.75
        },
        {
          "name": "volatility",
          "reason": "Higher realized volatility reduces conviction.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "risk_penalty",
          "contribution": -0.0052,
          "signal_strength": 0.0465
        },
        {
          "name": "drawdown",
          "reason": "Larger recent drawdowns reduce the composite score.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "risk_penalty",
          "contribution": -0.0139,
          "signal_strength": 4.6446
        }
      ],
      "confidence_hint": 0.8035,
      "risk_score_hint": 0.2467,
      "position_size_pct": 8
    },
    "deterministic_signals": [
      "moving_average_crossover:bullish:0.65",
      "rsi_mean_reversion:neutral:0.20",
      "momentum_breakout:neutral:0.20",
      "market_regime:bullish:trend=0.75:volatility=0.05",
      "composite_score:0.79",
      "action_bias:BUY",
      "position_size_hint:8.00"
    ],
    "position_sizing_policy": [
      "Return 0 for WAIT.",
      "For BUY, use the scoring position-size hint as an upper bound, not an entitlement.",
      "Reduce size when confidence is below 0.75, risk_score is above 0.45, volatility is elevated, or the portfolio already has exposure.",
      "Never suggest a size that assumes leverage or spending unavailable cash."
    ],
    "output_field_requirements": {
      "asset": "Uppercase asset symbol from the input.",
      "action": "Exactly one of BUY, SELL, HOLD, WAIT.",
      "summary": "One concise human-readable summary of the decision.",
      "confidence": "0.0 to 1.0, calibrated by evidence quality.",
      "risk_score": "0.0 to 1.0, calibrated by downside/data/volatility risk.",
      "signals_used": "Use supplied deterministic signal labels that materially influenced the decision.",
      "time_horizon": "One of intraday, short_term, medium_term, long_term.",
      "market_regime": "One of bullish, bearish, sideways, volatile, unknown.",
      "stop_loss_pct": "Number or null.",
      "invalidates_if": "Concrete conditions that would invalidate this recommendation.",
      "entry_rationale": "Short bullet-style reasons grounded in supplied data.",
      "exit_conditions": "Concrete monitorable conditions for review or exit.",
      "take_profit_pct": "Number or null.",
      "suggested_position_size_pct": "0.0 to 100.0. Use 0 for WAIT and usually 0 for HOLD."
    }
  },
  "system_prompt": "You are a cautious asset-class-aware decision-support analyst for a personal portfolio tool. You produce one auditable recommendation at a time. You must return exactly one schema-valid recommendation object. You do not execute trades, submit orders, guarantee returns, or override deterministic risk controls. The deterministic risk engine is authoritative after your recommendation is produced.",
  "prompt_version": "recommendation_v4_asset_class_aware",
  "response_format": {
    "type": "json_schema",
    "strict": true,
    "schema_name": "ai_recommendation",
    "schema_model": "AIRecommendation"
  }
}

{
  "asset": "ETH",
  "action": "BUY",
  "summary": "ETH has a constructive bullish setup with a high composite score and supportive trend structure, so a modest short-term BUY is reasonable with disciplined risk controls.",
  "confidence": 0.77,
  "risk_score": 0.31,
  "signals_used": [
    "moving_average_crossover:bullish:0.65",
    "market_regime:bullish:trend=0.75:volatility=0.05",
    "composite_score:0.79",
    "action_bias:BUY",
    "rsi_mean_reversion:neutral:0.20"
  ],
  "time_horizon": "short_term",
  "market_regime": "bullish",
  "stop_loss_pct": 4.5,
  "invalidates_if": [
    "Fast SMA falls below slow SMA.",
    "7d momentum turns negative while price loses the current trend structure.",
    "MACD stays below signal and price fails to hold recent support.",
    "Risk engine constraints or portfolio limits materially change before entry."
  ],
  "entry_rationale": [
    "Fast SMA is above slow SMA, supporting the supplied bullish trend signal.",
    "7d performance is strongly positive at +11.86%, indicating healthy recent demand.",
    "Composite score is high (0.7874) with an explicit BUY bias from the deterministic model.",
    "Portfolio has ample cash and only existing BTC exposure, so adding a modest ETH allocation is feasible.",
    "RSI is neutral rather than overbought, leaving room for continuation if trend persists."
  ],
  "exit_conditions": [
    "Reduce or exit if ETH closes back below the slow SMA for two consecutive observations.",
    "Reassess if RSI rises above 70 and momentum stalls while MACD remains below signal.",
    "Take profits if price reaches the predefined target or if 7d trend sharply deteriorates.",
    "Exit or pause if data quality degrades or provider/freshness conditions change materially."
  ],
  "take_profit_pct": 9,
  "scoring_explanation": {
    "score": 0.7874,
    "regime": {
      "name": "bullish",
      "reasons": [
        "fast moving average is above slow moving average",
        "7d momentum is strongly positive"
      ],
      "trend_score": 0.75,
      "risk_adjustment": 0.0209,
      "volatility_score": 0.0465
    },
    "version": "composite_v3_weighted",
    "weights": {
      "drawdown": 1,
      "volatility": 1,
      "market_regime": 1,
      "momentum_breakout": 1,
      "rsi_mean_reversion": 1,
      "moving_average_crossover": 1
    },
    "action_bias": "BUY",
    "market_data": {
      "error_message": null,
      "fallback_used": false,
      "actual_provider": "coinbase",
      "latest_candle_ts": "2026-07-05T13:00:00+00:00",
      "configured_provider": "coinbase"
    },
    "contributions": [
      {
        "name": "moving_average_crossover",
        "reason": "Fast SMA is above slow SMA.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "bullish",
        "contribution": 0.619,
        "signal_strength": 0.65
      },
      {
        "name": "rsi_mean_reversion",
        "reason": "RSI is within neutral range.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "contribution": 0,
        "signal_strength": 0.2
      },
      {
        "name": "momentum_breakout",
        "reason": "No breakout momentum.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "contribution": 0,
        "signal_strength": 0.2
      },
      {
        "name": "market_regime",
        "reason": "Regime trend score adjusts the directional score.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "bullish",
        "contribution": 0.1875,
        "signal_strength": 0.75
      },
      {
        "name": "volatility",
        "reason": "Higher realized volatility reduces conviction.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "risk_penalty",
        "contribution": -0.0052,
        "signal_strength": 0.0465
      },
      {
        "name": "drawdown",
        "reason": "Larger recent drawdowns reduce the composite score.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "risk_penalty",
        "contribution": -0.0139,
        "signal_strength": 4.6446
      }
    ],
    "confidence_hint": 0.8035,
    "risk_score_hint": 0.2467,
    "position_size_pct": 8
  },
  "suggested_position_size_pct": 5
}