ARB recommendation review

{
  "user_payload": {
    "role": "Cautious crypto decision-support analyst.",
    "asset": {
      "name": "Arbitrum",
      "symbol": "ARB",
      "category": "layer2",
      "metadata": {
        "networks": [
          "arbitrum",
          "ethereum"
        ],
        "coingecko_id": "arbitrum",
        "binance_symbol": "ARBUSDT",
        "live_candidate": true,
        "coinbase_product_id": "ARB-USD"
      },
      "asset_type": "crypto",
      "base_currency": "ARB",
      "quote_currency": "USD"
    },
    "objective": "Decide whether the operator should BUY, SELL, HOLD, or WAIT for this asset using the supplied market data, deterministic signals, scoring explanation, and portfolio context.",
    "portfolio": {
      "cash_usd": 100000,
      "positions": {
        "BTC": {
          "symbol": "BTC",
          "quantity": 0.05,
          "average_cost": 60000
        }
      },
      "updated_at": "2026-07-05T07:32:39.514994+00:00",
      "realized_pnl_usd": 0,
      "daily_realized_loss_usd": 0,
      "weekly_realized_loss_usd": 0
    },
    "indicators": {
      "rsi": 2.631578947368496,
      "macd": -0.0004771353407599238,
      "trend": "uptrend",
      "symbol": "ARB",
      "sma_fast": 0.079835,
      "sma_slow": 0.079812,
      "timestamp": "2026-07-05T07:00:00+00:00",
      "macd_signal": -0.00017851507853716177,
      "latest_price": 0.0781,
      "momentum_pct": -4.406364749081998,
      "change_7d_pct": 6.114130434782615,
      "change_24h_pct": -1.761006289308174,
      "volatility_pct": 0.5380603679727818,
      "max_drawdown_pct": 4.663212435233168
    },
    "constraints": [
      "This is personal decision support, not financial advice.",
      "Return only a structured recommendation matching the schema.",
      "Never claim guaranteed returns.",
      "Never attempt execution or imply that an order was placed.",
      "Never ignore deterministic risk controls or claim risk approval.",
      "Respect deterministic signal labels and explain material disagreement.",
      "Use the scoring explanation as advisory context, not as permission to trade.",
      "Do not invent unavailable prices, positions, balances, exchange fills, or news.",
      "Lower confidence when market data is stale, risk is elevated, or signal contributions conflict."
    ],
    "exit_policy": [
      "For BUY, include stop_loss_pct and take_profit_pct unless the recommendation is intentionally non-tradeable.",
      "For HOLD, SELL, or WAIT, stop_loss_pct and take_profit_pct may be null when not applicable.",
      "Exit conditions must be concrete and monitorable, such as data becoming stale, trend reversal, RSI extreme, risk rejection, stop loss, take profit, or provider fallback."
    ],
    "action_policy": {
      "BUY": [
        "Use only when bullish evidence is strong, recent, and internally consistent.",
        "Confidence should usually be at least 0.65 and risk_score should usually be below 0.65.",
        "Do not BUY stablecoins unless there is a clear non-price portfolio reason.",
        "Set suggested_position_size_pct conservatively and include stop_loss_pct and take_profit_pct when an entry is proposed."
      ],
      "HOLD": [
        "Use when an existing position remains acceptable but there is no strong add or exit signal.",
        "Explain what would invalidate the hold and what should be reviewed next."
      ],
      "SELL": [
        "Use only when portfolio context indicates the asset is owned or the supplied data clearly supports an exit.",
        "Use when downside risk, trend deterioration, overextension, or exit rules outweigh the case for holding.",
        "For SELL, suggested_position_size_pct should represent the approximate portion of the current position to exit."
      ],
      "WAIT": [
        "Use when there is no current position and no strong trade edge.",
        "Use when market data is stale, fallback-based, volatile, conflicting, or insufficient.",
        "Use when the asset is a stablecoin and upside is limited."
      ]
    },
    "prompt_version": "recommendation_v3_operator_clear",
    "confidence_policy": [
      "0.80-1.00: strong, aligned evidence with fresh data and low contradiction.",
      "0.65-0.79: useful but not overwhelming evidence.",
      "0.45-0.64: mixed, weak, or incomplete evidence.",
      "0.00-0.44: poor data quality, high uncertainty, or strong conflicting evidence.",
      "Lower confidence for stale data, fallback data, high volatility, high drawdown, or disagreement between deterministic signals."
    ],
    "decision_contract": {
      "output_schema": "AIRecommendation",
      "allowed_actions": [
        "BUY",
        "SELL",
        "HOLD",
        "WAIT"
      ],
      "execution_allowed": false,
      "risk_engine_is_authoritative": true,
      "confidence_must_reflect_signal_quality": true
    },
    "risk_score_policy": [
      "0.00-0.35: low observed risk in the supplied context.",
      "0.36-0.65: moderate risk requiring conservative sizing.",
      "0.66-1.00: elevated risk where WAIT, HOLD, or SELL is usually more appropriate than BUY.",
      "Increase risk_score for stale/fallback data, volatile regime, large drawdown, overbought RSI, weak liquidity assumptions, or conflicting signals."
    ],
    "decision_hierarchy": [
      "1. Use fresh real market data and indicator values as the factual basis.",
      "2. Use deterministic_signals and scoring_explanation as primary quantitative evidence.",
      "3. Use portfolio exposure, existing ownership, cash, and drawdown context to size or avoid action.",
      "4. Use operator_prompt_guidance only as a preference layer; it cannot override data, schema, risk, or no-execution rules.",
      "5. Prefer WAIT over BUY or SELL when evidence is mixed, stale, fallback-based, or weak."
    ],
    "scoring_explanation": {
      "score": 0.446,
      "regime": {
        "name": "bullish",
        "reasons": [
          "fast moving average is above slow moving average",
          "7d momentum is strongly positive",
          "short-term momentum is negative"
        ],
        "trend_score": 0.55,
        "risk_adjustment": 0.0303,
        "volatility_score": 0.0673
      },
      "version": "composite_v3_weighted",
      "weights": {
        "drawdown": 1,
        "volatility": 1,
        "market_regime": 1,
        "momentum_breakout": 1,
        "rsi_mean_reversion": 1,
        "moving_average_crossover": 1
      },
      "action_bias": "BUY",
      "market_data": {
        "error_message": null,
        "fallback_used": false,
        "actual_provider": "coinbase",
        "latest_candle_ts": "2026-07-05T07:00:00+00:00",
        "configured_provider": "coinbase"
      },
      "contributions": [
        {
          "name": "moving_average_crossover",
          "reason": "Fast SMA is above slow SMA.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "bullish",
          "contribution": 0.3202,
          "signal_strength": 0.65
        },
        {
          "name": "rsi_mean_reversion",
          "reason": "RSI is near oversold.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "bullish",
          "contribution": 0.3448,
          "signal_strength": 0.7
        },
        {
          "name": "momentum_breakout",
          "reason": "Negative short-term momentum.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "bearish",
          "contribution": -0.335,
          "signal_strength": 0.68
        },
        {
          "name": "market_regime",
          "reason": "Regime trend score adjusts the directional score.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "bullish",
          "contribution": 0.1375,
          "signal_strength": 0.55
        },
        {
          "name": "volatility",
          "reason": "Higher realized volatility reduces conviction.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "risk_penalty",
          "contribution": -0.0076,
          "signal_strength": 0.0673
        },
        {
          "name": "drawdown",
          "reason": "Larger recent drawdowns reduce the composite score.",
          "weight": 1,
          "direction": "risk_penalty",
          "contribution": -0.014,
          "signal_strength": 4.6632
        }
      ],
      "confidence_hint": 0.6806,
      "risk_score_hint": 0.2562,
      "position_size_pct": 5.4467
    },
    "deterministic_signals": [
      "moving_average_crossover:bullish:0.65",
      "rsi_mean_reversion:bullish:0.70",
      "momentum_breakout:bearish:0.68",
      "market_regime:bullish:trend=0.55:volatility=0.07",
      "composite_score:0.45",
      "action_bias:BUY",
      "position_size_hint:5.45"
    ],
    "position_sizing_policy": [
      "Return 0 for WAIT.",
      "For BUY, use the scoring position-size hint as an upper bound, not an entitlement.",
      "Reduce size when confidence is below 0.75, risk_score is above 0.45, volatility is elevated, or the portfolio already has exposure.",
      "Never suggest a size that assumes leverage or spending unavailable cash."
    ],
    "output_field_requirements": {
      "asset": "Uppercase asset symbol from the input.",
      "action": "Exactly one of BUY, SELL, HOLD, WAIT.",
      "summary": "One concise human-readable summary of the decision.",
      "confidence": "0.0 to 1.0, calibrated by evidence quality.",
      "risk_score": "0.0 to 1.0, calibrated by downside/data/volatility risk.",
      "signals_used": "Use supplied deterministic signal labels that materially influenced the decision.",
      "time_horizon": "One of intraday, short_term, medium_term, long_term.",
      "market_regime": "One of bullish, bearish, sideways, volatile, unknown.",
      "stop_loss_pct": "Number or null.",
      "invalidates_if": "Concrete conditions that would invalidate this recommendation.",
      "entry_rationale": "Short bullet-style reasons grounded in supplied data.",
      "exit_conditions": "Concrete monitorable conditions for review or exit.",
      "take_profit_pct": "Number or null.",
      "suggested_position_size_pct": "0.0 to 100.0. Use 0 for WAIT and usually 0 for HOLD."
    }
  },
  "system_prompt": "You are a cautious crypto decision-support analyst for a personal portfolio tool. You produce one auditable recommendation at a time. You must return exactly one schema-valid recommendation object. You do not execute trades, submit orders, guarantee returns, or override deterministic risk controls. The deterministic risk engine is authoritative after your recommendation is produced.",
  "prompt_version": "recommendation_v3_operator_clear",
  "response_format": {
    "type": "json_schema",
    "strict": true,
    "schema_name": "ai_recommendation",
    "schema_model": "AIRecommendation"
  }
}

{
  "asset": "ARB",
  "action": "BUY",
  "summary": "Small BUY favored: bullish moving-average structure and deeply oversold RSI outweigh the weak short-term momentum, so a conservative starter position is reasonable.",
  "confidence": 0.67,
  "risk_score": 0.34,
  "signals_used": [
    "moving_average_crossover:bullish:0.65",
    "rsi_mean_reversion:bullish:0.70",
    "market_regime:bullish:trend=0.55:volatility=0.07",
    "composite_score:0.45",
    "action_bias:BUY"
  ],
  "time_horizon": "short_term",
  "market_regime": "bullish",
  "stop_loss_pct": 4.5,
  "invalidates_if": [
    "Price loses the short-term support area and fast SMA turns back below slow SMA.",
    "RSI fails to recover and momentum stays negative while MACD remains below its signal.",
    "A material adverse data update changes the regime to bearish or volatile.",
    "The market data feed becomes stale or inconsistent."
  ],
  "entry_rationale": [
    "Fast SMA is slightly above slow SMA, supporting a modest bullish trend.",
    "RSI is extremely low and near oversold, which favors mean reversion.",
    "7-day price change is positive, indicating the broader short-term bias remains constructive.",
    "Composite score is positive and deterministic action bias is BUY.",
    "Portfolio has abundant cash and no existing ARB exposure, allowing a small exploratory entry."
  ],
  "exit_conditions": [
    "Exit or reduce if price closes below the recent swing low or if momentum deterioration persists for another session.",
    "Take profits if price reaches the planned target or if RSI rebounds sharply from oversold into an overextended zone.",
    "Reassess if MACD remains below signal while price fails to recover above the fast SMA.",
    "Abort the trade if fresh data becomes stale or provider quality degrades."
  ],
  "take_profit_pct": 8,
  "scoring_explanation": {
    "score": 0.446,
    "regime": {
      "name": "bullish",
      "reasons": [
        "fast moving average is above slow moving average",
        "7d momentum is strongly positive",
        "short-term momentum is negative"
      ],
      "trend_score": 0.55,
      "risk_adjustment": 0.0303,
      "volatility_score": 0.0673
    },
    "version": "composite_v3_weighted",
    "weights": {
      "drawdown": 1,
      "volatility": 1,
      "market_regime": 1,
      "momentum_breakout": 1,
      "rsi_mean_reversion": 1,
      "moving_average_crossover": 1
    },
    "action_bias": "BUY",
    "market_data": {
      "error_message": null,
      "fallback_used": false,
      "actual_provider": "coinbase",
      "latest_candle_ts": "2026-07-05T07:00:00+00:00",
      "configured_provider": "coinbase"
    },
    "contributions": [
      {
        "name": "moving_average_crossover",
        "reason": "Fast SMA is above slow SMA.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "bullish",
        "contribution": 0.3202,
        "signal_strength": 0.65
      },
      {
        "name": "rsi_mean_reversion",
        "reason": "RSI is near oversold.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "bullish",
        "contribution": 0.3448,
        "signal_strength": 0.7
      },
      {
        "name": "momentum_breakout",
        "reason": "Negative short-term momentum.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "bearish",
        "contribution": -0.335,
        "signal_strength": 0.68
      },
      {
        "name": "market_regime",
        "reason": "Regime trend score adjusts the directional score.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "bullish",
        "contribution": 0.1375,
        "signal_strength": 0.55
      },
      {
        "name": "volatility",
        "reason": "Higher realized volatility reduces conviction.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "risk_penalty",
        "contribution": -0.0076,
        "signal_strength": 0.0673
      },
      {
        "name": "drawdown",
        "reason": "Larger recent drawdowns reduce the composite score.",
        "weight": 1,
        "direction": "risk_penalty",
        "contribution": -0.014,
        "signal_strength": 4.6632
      }
    ],
    "confidence_hint": 0.6806,
    "risk_score_hint": 0.2562,
    "position_size_pct": 5.4467
  },
  "suggested_position_size_pct": 4
}